S5, Sim Test Draft-Match Thread (Completed)

Right - I've found out the issue here, and I think it's an error.

Basically, I've set a score range within which you are much more likely to choose to kick for goal. Outside of this range, you're more likely to kick for territory and go for the try.

This range is from being 3 points down to being 7 points up in the game.

So, in these two cases, Dyer's team were 6 points behind so he kicked for territory to try and go for the try.

In some ways, this seems reasonable, but in other ways it doesn't.

So, the question is - would you:

(i) prefer to live with the formula as it is
(ii) adjust the formula so the range is different (specify range)
(iii) overhaul the formula completely

Not quite sure how (iii) would work, but I guess I could put some time constraint on whether you'd go for a kick at goal or kick for territory between 4 - 10 points of deficit.

i.e. I could say that between 0-60 minutes of game time, you'll go for the kick at goal, but from 60 minutes onwards you'd only go for the try.

Not sure how big a deal this is.

 

At that range, being down you'd likely use a tap penalty and run at the line, esp whilst the defense is not properly organized yet.

 

This actually can now happen in the sim, but not currently in these circumstances. Mainly because coming up with some clear set of logical criteria under which you'd choose the tap over the kick is beyond my rugby playing knowledge.

 

This is obviously preferable for the last 15-20 minutes and the most key part of the penalty decision. Kicking at goal when 4 down with 10 minutes to spare would drive most people nuts I suspect.

If it could vary with time that would be even better, though.

 

It's definitely possible. The logic tests would possibly get a little bit daunting, but I think there could be an easy way to approach it which would be to basically duplicate the existing formula and then adding a time caveat in there.

So, where the current formula (boiled down) says >-3, <7, I could stack another IF in there to say if time>60 AND score >-10(?), <7 then Kick at Goal... else if score >-3, <7 then Kick at Goal else Kick for Touch

I *think* that's a better formula, but is it better ENOUGH to make the change worthwhile?

 

No views on this?

 

Anyway, I've actually done this... so...

Between 0-60 minutes assuming the place kicker can kick the distance, then they will go for a kick at goal if they are between 10 points in deficit or 7 points in the lead.

After 60 minutes, they will go for a kick at goal if they are between 3 points in deficit and 7 points in the lead.

Otherwise, they will kick for touch and try and win the line out.

Any disagreement, speak now as I don't want to keep messing with this formula. It's a pain.

 

Eddie vs. Howe tonight

Damp, Default

Eddie $2.00
Howe $1.67

 

Lessgooooo

 

Starting in just over 10 minutes.

 

Nah, what happens is at the start of the game, if you're down by 0-10, you'll choose to kick for goal.

However, given the additional scoring pressure on towards the end of the game, if there's a penalty and you're only down by 3, you'll go for goal. Any more than 3 down after 60 and you'll go for the line out and go for the try.