Top 8 Predictions

Discussion in 'The Cesspit: Rugby League Discussion' started by morgieb, Jul 12, 2015.

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  1. morgieb MC Burridge

    Current ladder:

    Broncos 30
    Cowboys 28
    Roosters 24
    Warriors 22
    Rabbitohs 22
    Storm 20
    Dragons 20
    Bulldogs 20

    Sharks 20
    Raiders 18
    Panthers 18
    Eels 18
    Titans 16*
    Wests Tigers 14
    Sea Eagles 14*
    Knights 14

    Games to play:

    Broncos (Tigers (h), Titans (h), Sea Eagles (a), Bulldogs (h), Dragons (h), Roosters (a), Rabbitohs (a), Storm (h)) - 5/8 to play currently in the Top 8
    Cowboys (Sea Eagles (a), Eels (h), Raiders (h), Sharks (a), Rabbitohs (h), Warriors (a), Storm (a), Titans (h)) - 3/8
    Roosters (Warriors (h), Tigers (a), Bulldogs (h), Knights (a), Eels (h), Broncos (h), Sea Eagles (a), Rabbitohs (h)) - 4/8
    Warriors (Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (h), Sharks (h), Dragons (h), Panthers (a), Cowboys (h), Tigers (a), Bulldogs (a)) - 4/8
    Rabbitohs (Dragons (a), Knights (h), Panthers (h), Sea Eagles (a), Cowboys (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Roosters (a)) - 5/8
    Storm (Panthers (h), Dragons (h), Tigers (a), Titans (h), Sharks (a), Knights (h), Cowboys (h), Brisbane (a)) - 3/8
    Dragons (Rabbitohs (h), Storm (a), Knights (h), Warriors (a), Brisbane (a), Panthers (h), Titans (a), Tigers (h)) - 4/8
    Bulldogs (Eels (a), Sharks (h), Roosters (a), Broncos (a), Titans (h), Rabbitohs (a), Knights (a), Warriors (h)) - 4/8
    Sharks (Raiders (a), Bulldogs (a), Warriors (a), Cowboys (h), Storm (h), Tigers (h), Eels (a), Sea Eagles (h)) - 4/8
    Raiders (Sharks (h), Panthers (a), Cowboys (a), Tigers (h), Sea Eagles (h), Titans (a), Panthers (h), Eels (a)) - 1/8
    Panthers (Storm (a), Raiders (h), Rabbitohs (a), Eels (a), Warriors (h), Dragons (a), Raiders (a), Knights (h)) - 4/8
    Eels (Bulldogs (h), Cowboys (a), Titans (a), Panthers (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (a), Sharks (h), Raiders (h)) - 3/8
    Titans (Sea Eagles (h), Knights (a), Broncos (a), Eels (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (a), Raiders (h), Dragons (h), Cowboys (a)) - 5/9
    Tigers (Broncos (a), Roosters (h), Storm (h), Raiders (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a), Warriors (h), Dragons (a)) - 5/8
    Sea Eagles (Titans (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (a), Broncos (h), Rabbitohs (h), Raiders (a), Eels (h), Roosters (h), Sharks (a)) - 5/9
    Knights (Titans (h), Rabbitohs (a), Dragons (a), Roosters (h), Tigers (a), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Panthers (a)) - 5/8

    Looking far tighter than I anticipated. The Storm, Rabbitohs and Dragons have all been really struggling lately, whereas the Sharks, Panthers and Eels have been pretty decent lately.

    Broncos can lose every game and qualify at this point, and the Cowboys are basically in too.

    I don't see Easts dropping out, and while the Warriors aren't exactly trustworthy they look in form and I like their chances of qualifying. Bulldogs will probably do enough to qualify I suspect.

    I'm prepared to write off the Dragons. They overachieved early in the season and it's safe to say their bubble has burst. Storm also in trouble given they won't get Slater back, though an easy run home I suspect may save them. Souths are concerning but their recent losses were Origin affected and I think we'll do enough to make the 8 - I don't see us doing damage though.

    Raiders are the side I rate the most outside of the 8, their run home is extremely kind and traditionally they've gone on big runs at the end of the season. You'd like their chances but their recent form has been patchy (admittedly against good sides) and they just don't feel that trustworthy to me. Sharks are in form and if they can jag a couple of wins in the next month they should make it. If they can get their players back Penrith could challenge too...and the Top 8 sides they do play are the most iffy. Eels are in form and have a comfortable run home - if they can beat the Dogs next week they'll have a good shot of making it too.

    Titans are probably also-rans. I think they'll avoid the spoon, but with their draw the 8 seems a reach.

    As for the spoon...Sea Eagles have probably the better draw given a lot of ther better sides they are playing are at Brookvale...and I feel they're in better form than the Tigers or the Knights so I'll say they avoid the spoon. Forced to call a spooner, I'll say the Knights given how little they've won since their strong start.

    So who do you think?
     
    morgieb, Jul 12, 2015
    #1

  2. Cribbage RG Cribb

    St George will drop out for Canberra, rest of the top eight will all stay in there, IMO.
     
    Cribbage, Jul 12, 2015
    #2

  3. Julian BJ Taylor

    Nah Sam Williams has just been ruled out for 4-6 weeks. Canberra are monumentally fucked without him.
     
    Julian, Jul 12, 2015
    #3

  4. Lukic L Popovic

    Sharks or Raiders will hop in.
     
    Lukic, Jul 13, 2015
    #4

  5. Ged GEC King

    Sharks will get in. My top 8:
    1. Broncos
    2. Cowboys
    3. Roosters
    4. Warriors
    5. Dogs
    6. Rabbits
    7. Sharks
    8. Storm
     
    Ged, Jul 14, 2015
    #5

  6. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    Dunno about Warriors top 4. Way too volitile.
     
    jazman84, Jul 14, 2015
    #6

  7. Julian BJ Taylor

    Sharks are pretenders.
     
    Julian, Jul 14, 2015
    #7

  8. Julian BJ Taylor

    I'm just so concerned about Sam Williams being out. He's 3rd in the league for try assists and he's only played 9 games.
     
    Julian, Jul 14, 2015
    #8

  9. Cribbage RG Cribb

    Yeah I don't know what Cronulla's run home is like but I'd be tipping them to slide out of the eight even if they were already in it. They've had a decent year especially after a poor start but their squad is just not very good.
     
    Cribbage, Jul 14, 2015
    #9

  10. Julian BJ Taylor

    Their starting pack is good but pretty much the rest of their squad is below average.
     
    Julian, Jul 14, 2015
    #10

  11. Wilson SB Wilson

    The only weak point is 7. Robson.
     
    Wilson, Jul 14, 2015
    #11

  12. Jabba HJ Bots

    Is Nu Brown gonna get another look in once he's fit?
     
    Jabba, Jul 14, 2015
    #12

  13. Julian BJ Taylor

    And 1. Gordon.

    And although you've improved your three-quarters ten fold, they're still a bunch of mediocre at best first graders (Holmes is an exception but he's hit and miss at this point too). Jack Bird, for all his raw ability, is a weak point at 6 as well. I'll argue all day long that Ennis is a weak point as well, but I haven't watched as many Sharks games as you, obv. The leftover forwards are all pretty meh too.
     
    Julian, Jul 14, 2015
    #13

  14. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    The juggling they do to accommodate Barba can't be positive for their structures which become more and more imperative as the season winds up.
     
    jazman84, Jul 14, 2015
    #14

  15. Wilson SB Wilson

    Gordon's actually the point that's holding the team back at the moment. Has gotta go. His usefulness is irrelevant with Holmes goal kicking like a champ and Barba in good form.

    Beale, for not scoring any tries, has actually been really good at setting up Holmes and Lewis at times on his outside. Agree with Leutele though, he's very limited but does a job.

    As much as I bag Flanagan I have to give him credit for his tactics of late. He's nullified Robson's shit boot by putting it through the hands when we're 35-50 out. He also has Robson and Ennis directing in the middle with Graham and Bird taking the edges.
     
    Wilson, Jul 14, 2015
    #15

  16. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    Cowboys
    Broncos
    Roosters
    Storm
    Rabbitohs
    Warriors
    Bulldogs
    Dragons

    I believe the sides in the top 8 will stay as is and will only reshuffle.

    As Julian has stated, Williams is too big a loss for the Raiders' gameplan to recover from. Sharks are hotting a decent vein, however I think the Dragons will rally and pip a few sides come the final round or 2. Panthers are on a slippery slope and don't have it in them to repeat last year's heroics.

    As for the top 4, Broncos have a tougher run home than the Cows and are only 1 win clear. Without McGuire our pack is losing about 50-100 running metres and about 1/2 the net agression we had prior to him being busted.
    I can see the Cows claiming the minor premiership after we go down to Easts and Storm in the final rounds.
     
    jazman84, Jul 14, 2015
    #16

  17. Julian BJ Taylor

    I don't disagree with any of this mate. I said at the start of the season that Gerard Beale was an enormous signing for Cronulla. Just so much more talented than the centre/wingers he was replacing. He's a genuinely good first grader.

    The only thing I'm not agreeing with (as a general idea you've been posting) is Ennis as a real positive. Going on the last few games I find he does too much, and too often goes the wrong way in attack. Probably has as much to do with Robson being the halfback anyway.

    Both Cronulla and Canberra would be ecstatic to make the 8 for mine. Very much a transition year for both clubs with 2016/17 aimed to be premiership tilts for each (whether that's attainable or not isn't the point).
     
    Julian, Jul 14, 2015
    #17

  18. Magic AJ Parker

    The top 4 pretty much play the bottom 4 this week.

    1. Broncos Vs Titans (15th)
    2. Cowboys Vs Eels (11th)
    3. Roosters Vs Tigers (16th)
    4. Rabbitohs Vs Knights (14th)


    Means a lot of 4 point games between those sides log jammed in the middle.
     
    Magic, Jul 22, 2015
    #18

  19. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    I don't see it changing with Cronullas win over Canberra, would've been an interesting race for 8th if it'd gone the other way.

    Although who knows with the Warriors, they could always clock off and get the spoon.
     
    Sultan Pepper, Jul 23, 2015
    #19

  20. Julian BJ Taylor

    Current mid table ladder [next 4 games]

    5. Storm 24 [Tigers (a), Titans (h), Sharks (a), Knights (h)]
    6. Sharks 24 [Warriors (a), Cowboys (h), Storm (h), Tigers (h)]
    7. Bulldogs 22 [Roosters (a), Broncos (a), Titans (h), Rabbitohs (a)]
    8. Warriors 22 [ Sharks (h), Dragons (h), Panthers (a), Cowboys (h)]
    9. Raiders 20 [Cowboys (a), Tigers (h), Sea Eagles (h), Titans (a)]
    10. Dragons 20 [Knights (h), Warriors (a), Brisbane (a), Panthers (h)]
    11. Sea Eagles 18 [ Warriors (a), Broncos (h), Rabbitohs (h), Raiders (a)]

    Just the next month will see some real movement there I reckon. Dogs could be in trouble.
     
    Julian, Jul 26, 2015
    #20
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