Contenders/Pretenders

Discussion in 'The Cesspit: Rugby League Discussion' started by Magic, Aug 31, 2014.

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  1. Magic AJ Parker

    List 'em
     
    Magic, Aug 31, 2014
    #1

  2. Farhat AM Farhat

    Roosters
    Melbourne
    Souths
    Manly

    Canterbury
    Nth Qld

    The rest.
     
    Farhat, Aug 31, 2014
    #2

  3. Farhat AM Farhat

    Guess you could put Penrith in the 2nd group. I can't seem to rate them.
     
    Farhat, Aug 31, 2014
    #3

  4. morgieb MC Burridge

    No idea anymore. Manly's hit the wall at the wrong time, Cows will struggle if they aren't Top 4, Penrith just don't have enough class IMO and Melbourne feel underwhelming and might struggle to make the Top 4.

    Leaves Souths and Easts, and Easts do a lot of dumb shit and we've been a bit too inconsistent at times.
     
    morgieb, Aug 31, 2014
    #4

  5. Farhat AM Farhat

    Plus Jake Friend is out for the season now right?
     
    Farhat, Aug 31, 2014
    #5

  6. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    It'll be very hard for them to win it without him.
     
    Maroon_Faithful, Sep 1, 2014
    #6

  7. Cribbage RG Cribb

    Melbourne and Easts are the teams to beat IMO.

    Souths are overly reliant on middle third dominance with their forwards for mine. If they don't conclusively win the forward battle they have no chance of winning the game and we see them lose the odd game even after dominating up front. They've done well this season on the back of how often they manage to do exactly that, but I don't think they have enough on the edges. Keary has been a breath of fresh air in this regard but I don't think it's quite enough.

    Manly are the opposite. They have the best backline in the NRL with daylight second, and I actually include their second rowers in that as they chime in so well on their shifts, but their middle third is completely rubbish. They really need to avoid Souths in the finals because they'll get steamrolled if they play them, but if the better teams can eliminate Souths for them then they could just about stay in the game against Melbourne's and Easts's forwards and try to bring their backline into it. Could definitely win but I think they're only the third most likely really.

    Canterbury and Penrith are straight up pretenders for mine. It seems really harsh to say that about Penrith because they've had a top season which they should be proud of; I know that sounds really patronising but it's how I see it. I'm definitely not going to say they don't deserve to be in the top four or that they've been lucky or anything like that; I just think they've over-performed slightly and, with so many injuries as well, will struggle at the business end. Canterbury are Souths-lite -- very reliant on their middle third, but it's not as good as Souths's anyway, and they have Perrett at fullback instead of Inglis; forget them.

    North Queensland and (if they make it) the Warriors actually have lineups I rate about on par with Manly and Souths (maybe even slightly better in NQ's case) but it's a tough ask for inconsistent teams who struggle on the road to do serious damage from the bottom four. You naturally just think 'too much to do'. I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of them made a big run though; much more chance of being premiers than Penrith/Canterbury IMO.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2014
    Cribbage, Sep 1, 2014
    #7

  8. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    Yeah I like Melbourne too. That game on Saturday was a very bizarre one as Melbourne were definitely the better side for mine. They just totally crapped the bed, which is unlike them, and also a very good effort in goal line D from Easts.

    The Roosters will struggle without Friend. I know they massacred Wests without him but who really gives a fuck about that? Aside from SKD, the main chink in their armour is through the middle and losing Friend won't help that at all. The Storm are no slouches in attack but Souths and Manly would've put 30-40 on the Roosters with that many inside 20's.

    Manly are playing like absolute shit. 2 months ago I thought they were specials. Now, you feel like the wheels are about to fall off. Really strange turn of events. I don't think it's a case of their true colours finally showing. They're just in a rut at the wrong time of year, for mine. Blind Freddy can see their middle third is the Achilles heel. Lawrence is an enormous loss from today's game though, I think. He or (not and) Watmough are the difference between it being a totally sub-standard pack and it being a satisfactory one, capable of laying a platform good enough to win prelims and grand finals. They can definitely win the comp.

    Souths are the top contender IMO. Despite the rather ordinary efforts against North QLD and Canterbury, it just feels like their year to me. The pack is ferocious. The defence has improved markedly. And they have the X-factor at the back. If they play smart, it's theirs to win I reckon.
     
    Maroon_Faithful, Sep 1, 2014
    #8

  9. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    And yes, Canterbury and Penrith are total pretenders. North QLD are, as you said, the dark horse but they're always the fucken dark horse. Green has made improvements but they just don't have the consistency yet.
     
    Maroon_Faithful, Sep 1, 2014
    #9

  10. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Even at full strength I wouldn't be backing Penrith in, but it is a shane they've been Hit so hard by injuries and won't be able to make the most of this opportunity. They've got tons of experience and big game minutes on the sidelines and I'd give them a real shot against Souths in week 1 of the finals at full strength for reasons similar to those Cribb outlined. I think any team that can score early and hold their own against Souths pack for the opening 30 will go a long way to winning, key players like Luke, Te'o and Burgess just lack discipline and Inglis can go missing in patches. I was very surprised they came back against the dogs.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2014
    Sultan Pepper, Sep 1, 2014
    #10

  11. Hunter AD Hunt

    Best case scenario for us is we beat the Warriors next week and finish fourth. Even then we'll be out in straight sets.
     
    Hunter, Sep 1, 2014
    #11

  12. Toolman TR Man

    Friend will play in the finals imo.
     
    Toolman, Sep 1, 2014
    #12

  13. GYR DW Lewis

    I would love nothing more than to play Penrith week 1.
     
    GYR, Sep 1, 2014
    #13

  14. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    Reckon the Cows are hitting their strides at the perfect time. The way they dispatched the Bunnies last week was very impressive.
     
    jazman84, Sep 1, 2014
    #14

  15. Toolman TR Man

    Yeah but against Penrith? Not too great.
     
    Toolman, Sep 1, 2014
    #15

  16. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    If they played this weekend they would beat Penny IMO.
     
    jazman84, Sep 1, 2014
    #16

  17. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    Manly are falling off at the wrong time. They managed to reign in their massive off-field issues for the best part of the season but they seem to be taking their toll. Also, the fact that bar Lawrence they lack quality up front. Losing Buhrer is huge too because he plugs so many holes for them.
     
    jazman84, Sep 1, 2014
    #17

  18. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    South Sydney – If the Burgess boys and Inglis don’t fire; they really have nothing to fall back on. Johnston and Walker are quality; but their halves will be exposed big time without a good platform. In saying that though, the Burgess/Inglis connection is just too good to ignore and even a solid game from them should be enough to beat any side.
     
    jazman84, Sep 1, 2014
    #18

  19. Ged GEC King

    I don't see how anyone can say that North Qld aren't contenders. I think that we're a very good chance of beating Manly next week given that Manly are now assured top 2 and we're at home. Presuming we win tonight, that leaves us in 5th at a minimum and 4th if Penrith lose next week. What that means is a home game in week one where we've lost one all year then a qualifier against Penrith in week 2 in all likelihood, which would be the first away game for 4 weeks. Once you're at the prelim you're a good chance, particularly if we can draw Souths.
     
    Ged, Sep 1, 2014
    #19

  20. GYR DW Lewis

    Manly's prop rotation is one of the worst in the league and has been their biggest detriment this season and will IMO eventually be their downfall in the finals. Once again they showed yesterday that they cannot make more than 30 meters in a set. If their backline aren't clicking they have absolutely nothing.
     
    GYR, Sep 1, 2014
    #20
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