Lukic's NFL picks & bets

I might do this weekly, since I plan on putting a $5 multi on every week from here till the end of the season.

First up:

Buffalo to beat Jacksonville outright, paying $1.80
Philadelphia to beat San Fran outright, paying $2.35
St Louis to beat Detroit Outright, paying $2.35
Packers to cover -2.5 against the Skins, paying $1.85
Atlanta to cover -3.5 against the Browns, paying $2
Chicago to cover -2.5 against the Panthers, paying $2.35
Colts to win outright over the Chiefs, paying $1.27

$5 to win $504

 

TAB sports bet NSW

 

$1.65 or something? Not too sure and cbf checking.

I'm confident they'll cover though. The Browns suck and won't be up for the match after beating a divisional foe, whereas the Falcons as an elite team movement is gathering steam and they'll want to prove everyone right.

 

Roddy white is licking his lips so much at the browns secondary..

 

The Lions will come up flat. Something has to give.

You can't lose 4 games in a row by like 5 points of less, 3 to divisional opponents.

 

C'MON MAN!

 

Also with Cutler out, bet tips up to $402 with Chicago paying $2.05 with the line.

Scared about the Bengals. They're ****ing douches.

Yeah **** it, taking them out. Packers will rape the Skins.

 

Pick Breakdowns:

Jax @ Buf

Pick: Buffalo outright

I like the Bills here because of a few reasons:

1. The Bills are getting insulted, they got shredded by the Jets and are pretty much going to have to fire up. Any small chances they have at winning anything this season are gone if they lose here, because the Jets/Pats will finish 11-5 or better.
2. The Jags will come off flat. They played their superbowl last week against their most fierce rivals, the Colts. They won't be up for this game at all by any means.
3. The Jags are just a shit, lazy side who don't play unless their at home, season openers/closers and/or against their division. A 0-4 Bills team in cold Buffalo is probably the least inspiring team they could play at the moment.
4. The Bills have had a very hard schedule. The Fins are a good team, and the Pats, Packers and Jets are all playoff/elite teams. Their schedule has made them look worse than they are, despite still being pretty shit.

Prediction:

Bills 24 - 17 Jags.

The Bills to win by a touchdown in a scrappy, ground dominated affair. Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss over 200 yards and for Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to break 150 yards from scrimmage combined.

PHI @ SF

Pick: Philly Outright

The look on Mike Singletary's face after Matt Bryant slotted the field goal during Atlanta's 16-14 win over the 'Niners said it all. They were defeated. They gave it their all against the Saints and turned up flat. They've given their all against the Falcons now, and will more than likely turn up flat against the Eagles. On the other hand, the Eagles are coming off an emotional loss to a fierce rival in the Redskins as well as more importantly, Donovan McNabb. As a result of this, they'll be absolutely fired up and ready to kick some ass. Kolb is in at QB and whilst he is a downgrade from Vick, he's still a starting calibre QB. Everyone is righting off the Eagles and that's when they'll play best, expect them to trounce through the Niners and end their pitiful season.

Prediction:

Eagles 34 - 17 Niners

This scoreline could change depending on LeSean McCoy's health, however an Eagles victory with a defensive score and two touchdowns from Kevin Kolb is my firm prediction.
STL @ DET

Pick: St Louis Outright

St Louis are coming off probably the biggest win in the past 3 years for the franchise, shutting down the Seahawks en route to taking a divisional lead. The offense has been pulling it's weight well, Bradford showing he's got the tools to be a great QB as well as Steven Jackson beasting it out as always. The key to their success however has been the great play of the defence. They're getting some pressure but also limiting 3rd down completions and not giving away many big gains or huge yardage totals in their contests. As for Detroit, you've got to love their effort. To lose the way they did to the Bears would've been crushing. To back it up with another tight loss against the Eagles and then two more against the Vikings and Packers can really kill you. They'll be flat and as a result, the upstart Rams team should have their way with the Lions and improve to 3-2.

Prediction:

Rams 24 - 10 Lions

Steven Jackson will run for over 120 yards and have a score along with Bradford chipping in with a few TD tossess to give the Rams a comfortable win over the hapless Lions.
GB @ WAS

Pick: Green Bay -2.5

2 things in this match lead me to the packers.

1. The 'Skins secondary is ****ing shit. Rodgers should have a field day, 300+ and a few TDs despite having no running game.

2. The Packers will be up for this one a lot more. Everyone is doubting them, they may have just lost to the Lions, but they were in a bad spot leading into the game. They got through that game with the W, and are looking to this weeks match already. The Skins however put absolutely everything they had into beating the Eagles and I'm not sure they'll have the motivation to turn up and put the Pack away.

Prediction:

Packers 31 - 17 Skins

The Pack expectedly dominate this one off the back of Aaron Rodgers arm, tossing for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in this one-sided affair.

ATL @ CLE

Pick: Atlanta Outright

Atlanta are a good team, not elite, but good. Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB, Roddy White is an excellent wideout and they've got a good running game with Turner and Snelling pounding the rock. Their defence is also solid, one which can definitely hold a team out for the offence to get the job done. This will be the case against the Browns who have Jake Delhomme returning to their line-up (FTW!). Jake sucks balls, his receivers suck balls and despite the epic win of the offensive line and Peyton Hillis, will be inept and score few points. They're also coming off a win against a hated divisional opponent so they won't give a shit. The Falcons however have won 3 on the trot and are getting some confidence.

Prediction:

Falcons 30 - 7 Browns

The Falcons do it easy as a couple of Matt Ryan touchdown passes, as well as 100+ yards on the ground from Turner the Burner give them a convincing win against the lowly Browns.

Pick Breakdowns:

Jax @ Buf

Pick: Buffalo outright

I like the Bills here because of a few reasons:

1. The Bills are getting insulted, they got shredded by the Jets and are pretty much going to have to fire up. Any small chances they have at winning anything this season are gone if they lose here, because the Jets/Pats will finish 11-5 or better.
2. The Jags will come off flat. They played their superbowl last week against their most fierce rivals, the Colts. They won't be up for this game at all by any means.
3. The Jags are just a shit, lazy side who don't play unless their at home, season openers/closers and/or against their division. A 0-4 Bills team in cold Buffalo is probably the least inspiring team they could play at the moment.
4. The Bills have had a very hard schedule. The Fins are a good team, and the Pats, Packers and Jets are all playoff/elite teams. Their schedule has made them look worse than they are, despite still being pretty shit.

Prediction:

Bills 24 - 17 Jags.

The Bills to win by a touchdown in a scrappy, ground dominated affair. Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss over 200 yards and for Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to break 150 yards from scrimmage combined.

PHI @ SF

Pick: Philly Outright

The look on Mike Singletary's face after Matt Bryant slotted the field goal during Atlanta's 16-14 win over the 'Niners said it all. They were defeated. They gave it their all against the Saints and turned up flat. They've given their all against the Falcons now, and will more than likely turn up flat against the Eagles. On the other hand, the Eagles are coming off an emotional loss to a fierce rival in the Redskins as well as more importantly, Donovan McNabb. As a result of this, they'll be absolutely fired up and ready to kick some ass. Kolb is in at QB and whilst he is a downgrade from Vick, he's still a starting calibre QB. Everyone is righting off the Eagles and that's when they'll play best, expect them to trounce through the Niners and end their pitiful season.

Prediction:

Eagles 34 - 17 Niners

This scoreline could change depending on LeSean McCoy's health, however an Eagles victory with a defensive score and two touchdowns from Kevin Kolb is my firm prediction.
STL @ DET

Pick: St Louis Outright

St Louis are coming off probably the biggest win in the past 3 years for the franchise, shutting down the Seahawks en route to taking a divisional lead. The offense has been pulling it's weight well, Bradford showing he's got the tools to be a great QB as well as Steven Jackson beasting it out as always. The key to their success however has been the great play of the defence. They're getting some pressure but also limiting 3rd down completions and not giving away many big gains or huge yardage totals in their contests. As for Detroit, you've got to love their effort. To lose the way they did to the Bears would've been crushing. To back it up with another tight loss against the Eagles and then two more against the Vikings and Packers can really kill you. They'll be flat and as a result, the upstart Rams team should have their way with the Lions and improve to 3-2.

Prediction:

Rams 24 - 10 Lions

Steven Jackson will run for over 120 yards and have a score along with Bradford chipping in with a few TD tossess to give the Rams a comfortable win over the hapless Lions.
GB @ WAS

Pick: Green Bay -2.5

2 things in this match lead me to the packers.

1. The 'Skins secondary is ****ing shit. Rodgers should have a field day, 300+ and a few TDs despite having no running game.

2. The Packers will be up for this one a lot more. Everyone is doubting them, they may have just lost to the Lions, but they were in a bad spot leading into the game. They got through that game with the W, and are looking to this weeks match already. The Skins however put absolutely everything they had into beating the Eagles and I'm not sure they'll have the motivation to turn up and put the Pack away.

Prediction:

Packers 31 - 17 Skins

The Pack expectedly dominate this one off the back of Aaron Rodgers arm, tossing for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in this one-sided affair.

ATL @ CLE

Pick: Atlanta Outright

Atlanta are a good team, not elite, but good. Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB, Roddy White is an excellent wideout and they've got a good running game with Turner and Snelling pounding the rock. Their defence is also solid, one which can definitely hold a team out for the offence to get the job done. This will be the case against the Browns who have Jake Delhomme returning to their line-up (FTW!). Jake sucks balls, his receivers suck balls and despite the epic win of the offensive line and Peyton Hillis, will be inept and score few points. They're also coming off a win against a hated divisional opponent so they won't give a shit. The Falcons however have won 3 on the trot and are getting some confidence.

CHI @ CAR

Pick: Chicago -2.5

The Bears were made to look like complete spastics against the Giants. They'll be pissed off. A downfall in Mike Martz system is that if a team has a front 7 capable of bringing pressure outside of blitzing, there's major protection problems. The Panthers don't have such a defensive line (heck, they can't even blitz) so despite having Todd Collins under centre, the Bears should be able to move the chains and get some points. On the other hand, the luckless Panthers season just keeps getting worse. Jimmy Clausen who's a fine rookie QB, is in a terrible situation. Steve Smith is out, Dwayne Jarrett got release and Brandon LaFell has hands for feet. That leaves him with David Gettis, yes David Gettis as his main go to man in the passing attack. Adding to this, his starting right tackle is out and you can pretty much count on a tough day for the youngster. Chicago is stout against the run and with the knowledge that the passing game won't do anything, will stack the box all day and keep the Panthers from scoring on offence.

Prediction:

Bears 17 - 6 Panthers

A Devin Hester punt return for a touchdown along with a Matt Forte reception for a TD along with 150 yards from scrimmage hands the Bears a win in low scoring, defence dominated affair vs. the Panthers.

 

Gonna chuck in the Colts beating the Chiefs at $1.22

Easy money imo, there's no way in the world the Chiefs offensive line will stop Freeney and Mathis and Manning will make Berry and co look like fools.

**** it, throwing the Bengals outright in as well.

I don't see the Bucs beating the Bengals, maybe with a spread but not outright.

 

lol. My dad is a sped and came back with Jacksonville and Kansas City. That's paying near $1700 for $5.

Good thing he got another.

 

Nah. Normally go between 10-6 and 12-4 in a week of tipping, so I took the 7 safest ones.

(Took out Cinci btw, they were apparently 1.01 on the machine and my dad was like wtf so he didn't put it.)

 

Meh.

Jacksonville won't turn up.

Philly will be spewin about losing to McNabb and Andy Reid will just throw a "**** you" game that he does like once every year.

Aaron Rodgers will rapez Washigtons secondary.