AFL Player Ratings

The problem with this for defenders is it measures a lot of off the ball stats. I'd have separate requirements for a defender.

they've covered offense well so I'd run with their system for that. Something like this for defence, assuming 80 minute games.

(record minutes on set opponents.)
- spoils.
- award points in this category for holding opponent below their scores (the opponents conversion is absolutely irrelevant to their defensive work) per minute average of the last 30 games. weight highly
- award points for holding their opponent below their effective possessions average for the last 30 games. weight low-moderate
- contests participated where ball is brought to ground. each contest is worth '1' and their score for it is 1/number of defensive participants. this way each contest has equal worth
- contests where teammate spoils. weight very lowly
- contested marks. weight highly
- tackles. weight moderatlely
- situations where opponent fails to achieve hard ball get when possible for them to. weight same as contests i.e. each contest worth 1.
- contests where teammate takes contested mark. weight very lowly


I'd then add these scores to the offensive ones.

what I'd also do is record minutes played in

- midfield
- non key defensive
- key defensive
- ruck
- key forward
- non key forward

situations.

I'd find the 'average points scored' across the competition (per minute) in each of these six roles.

I would then standardise and scale these. for example, if the average ppm in midfield is 1.2 across the comp, and in KPD it is 0.6, each point in KPD is worth double

Then for each player, I'd scale their points based on each position they play and the time etc. you know what I'm talking about. Someone like Jared Brennan might play 35% in SD, 30% in midfield, 2% in ruck, 10% in key forward, 15% in small forward and 18% in key defense. His points scored while playing KPD would be weighted more highly than when he was in small defense, but he might still have more SD points than KD due to playing much more time there.

It'd make each position equal in relevance, which they are. Midfielders would, for once, have no points advantage.

Hope that makes sense.

 

That's how they define an effective possession. 99% sure I was the one who you heard that from.

Effective possessions are

- ones that find an uncontested teammate
- ones that travel over 40 metres to a contest

if it travels 25 metres to a contest and your teammate marks it, it is not effective. likewise, if it travels 50 metres to an uncontested opponent, it is not effective.

 

huh?

 

Oh yeh 3300

Thought you meant for these rankings though.

Teams play each other etc though so it evens out

Like it.

 

My whole logic is that each game is worth 4 premiership points so it's equally as important as every other game and as such should be weighted the same.

 

fmd.

so you gain like fuck all for a spoil unless it's a spoil to advantage.

fmd

 

So essentially, for those who don't know what this is based on, each event is purely based on territory. To a degree, each goal in the game should add 6 to the total sum of players scores in this. For a game with 30 goals between the teams, you'd expect the players to finish with a net score of +180, or so. Some things are a little different but that's about right.

Some players might finish on +9 for a 'goal phase' despite the fact that it adds 6 only to the gross score. The sum of the other 43 players should then equal -3. Actually wait no I think it's more a metres gained thing. It's a little confusing, mightn't actually be contributions relevant to goals, but contributions relevant to territorial gain.

It essentially assesses each contribution based on its net territory gain. It's a lot more complex than that at the core, but essentially, that's simply it.

It's why it's necessary for spoils to be worth little, for they gain little territory.

That said, I really do like the concept. Territory is so important in AFL yet people associate it with soccer and rugby much more.

 

I think they need to weight things that have potential to cause a turnover higher.

I'd suggest that a spoil in most cases should be worth the exact same + as a kick that goes out of bounds on the bounce is -

spoiling turns the oppositions ball into a 50/50 chance of possession for you. It's relevant to territory as it stops the opposition from gaining and gives you a 50% chance at gaining. It's like a throw in, turns possession into a 50/50.

I do like the concept though, I really do. There's wheels to this, just needs some tinkering.