Who will win Origin 1?

Queensland.

 

lol. Gun post.

 

Firstly, I think the NSW side is underrated. Both on paper and for their sakes, in practice. A club combination in the hooker/half area is very valuable. Say what you will about Kimmorley's form and being washed up, he can still direct a team around the park. He was never a great creator of points. That has become evermore evident. However, his kicking at ANZ is a proven plus and thus he provides the bread and butter of a halfback - Organisation and kicking. There are two reasons why he may be poor (or considered poor) as some are expecting - Either his forwards will not lay a platform, or he'll be unfairly implicated if Lyon and the rest of the outside backs don't score points. Perfect example of this was Game 2, 2007 with Anasta helping not at all. Now I'm a strong advocate of picking solid, well-rounded, outside backs and leaving the creativity to the halves but with Kimmorley, who's about as creative as a dish cloth, and a makeshift, untested 6 in Lyon, I would be somewhat concerned as I was in Game 3, 2006 when NSW had Gasnier paired with Gower.

Mind you, I am quite aware of the possibility that Lyon could be a real find in the 6 jersey. Actually I'll be surprised if he doesn't play well. I actually think he is a good selection when compared to a lot of the other names that were being thrown about. Of course I'm also aware of the possibility that he will play a non-existent, ball runners role that adds nothing to the side (see Gasnier), but I feel this is far less likely to occur and I've already said in another post why I think as such.

I do think the Blues have missed a vital opportunity to bombard QLD in the long range kicking department. Without Smith and having Slater at the back we are limited to Thurston and Lockyer as chief kickers (though hopefully Ballin will show some arrogance/confidence and back his own kicking). Had NSW picked Hayne at fullback, who has the biggest boot in the NRL IMO, they could've drilled it down field set, after set, after set. This sort of play wins Origins. Ennis, Kimmorley, Lyon and Hayne - all good/great, long range kickers.

The biggest factor will be their go-forward, of course. Everything starts where that crucial department leaves off. I personally think NSW have left themselves a little light on metre-makers. I'm all for defence but you must still maintain a powerful engine room. I was serious in the other thread when I asked how many Blues players are capable of making 100m+? Watmough and Weyman for sure. In fact they'll have to. Creagh, yes but only on a good night. Waterhouse, Perry, White, TLL, Lewis and Idris? Please. I hate Gallen and Poore but honestly, one of them needed to be there because the simple fact is when NSW do not have at least two 100m+ forwards (letter lone three), they do not set up the platform and they do not win. The same is true for QLD.

I like the look of Cooper and Morris on the left. I hate the look of Tahu and Hayne on the right.

Idris on the bench is absurd. Even if he plays well, it's still absurd. He's a centre that will require three positional changes to exact, and he's not even the one they're really doing it for. It's to get Hayne at the back so Ennis can be relieved by Gidley.

NSW have finally resorted to more experience and stronger bodies out wide. If they're well organised, kick well and make in-roads through the middle, there is absolutely no reason why they can't win well and head to Brisbane full of confidence.

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Regarding QLD, we all know the record in Sydney without Price and now Smith. Ballin is the biggest question mark. He needs to run and create angles. If he shovels all day, our pigs will struggle. I pray Matt Scott actually starts and not Shillington (who I swear has only one more chance in my books, as far as defence goes.) We clearly have an advantage in the engine room and it must be exploited. I would've liked to have seen Myles used as an extra prop as in 2008. When Pricey wasn't there he really stepped up. However, doing Johnson's role in defence (Harrison has already confirmed his role will be the same) it will no doubt limit his attack.

Ball control boys. Ball control. Game 3 last year and Game 1, 2008 were disgraceful. Obviously Game 3 was about fun - Throwing it around on first tackle but it's back to basics now. Percentage football in your own half (I'm looking at you Billy). Patience when a break is made. Get the fundamentals right. Kick and chase hard, turn them around and wait for them to crack.

A dummy with a decoy set up, to Watmough's inside will provide dozens of opportunities. We should be enticing him to come in on our ball players and using our forwards to beat him. Myles or Harrison at first receiver, JT or Locky outside at second receiver (with a front decoy that Watmough knows is a decoy) and simply dummy to them. He'll take the "danger man" (JT/Locky - the man out the back) every time. In this video Johnson is the only one who catches on and exploits it. The only other way to counter it is a wrap - the most underused, underrated play in RL.

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Watch for the space he creates by staggering the line.

0.02 Watmough rushes in on Inglis because he knows it's one out garbage.

0.08 Watmough leaves heaps of space for Shillington and Thurston if the pass could've found them. If Harrison wraps around Price, massive overlap.

0.15 Very next play Watmough again rushes in on a predictable play. Shillington should have dummied and ran himself, straight at Watmough's gap or gone short to Johnson.

0.20 Simple two pass tap play that should've been Thurston wrapping around Shillington.

0.25 He's just zeroing in on Lockyer.

0.30 Look at how easily Johnson made a break with a dummy because of Watmough's over-reading. He's just waiting for the pass to Thurston so he can smother him. It's so simple. "Dummy to the decoys" should be it's name. It should be the key play when Watmough is defending in the middle.

0.35 Simple step at the line.

0.55 A replica of the Shillington tap play from the first half. Watmough knows it's going to the man out the back. Now instead of a boring, predictable, two pass play (which I have never understood from a tap) what if Thurston wraps around Shillington straight away? Look at the space that Watmough has created. Watmough's presence in their defensive line means every tap is a chance to spread it wide. Get on his outside and there will be massive overlaps.

Honestly if the QLD team has not looked at exploiting this chink in NSW's armour, I'll be very disappointed.

Regarding our backs. Well even they are not so great as to be above the forward battle. Sure they can make something out of nothing but Game 3 showed these matches are won up the middle. High ball is a great weapon. Need to use it and even look to bring Folau into the very middle and place one just above Ennis, near the posts.

Whoever wins in the middle and on the fringes will be victorious. Neither side is anywhere near full strength but it makes for a very interesting contest nonetheless.

 

lol, er yeah.

 

NSW must lead at half time, IMO.

Their record when not leading by more than 6 at half time is poor, letter lone not leading at all.

09
Game 3 - Lead 14-6 (+8). Went on to win 28-16.
Game 2 - Trailed 18-10 (-8). Went on to lose 24-14.
Game 1 - Trailed 18-6 (-12). Went on to lose 28-18.

08
Game 3 - Lead 10-8 (+2). Went on to lose 16-10.
Game 2 - Trailed 16-0 (-16). Went on to lose 30-0.
Game 1 - Lead 14-4 (+10). Went on to win 18-10.

07
Game 3 - Lead 6-4 (+2). Went on to win 18-10.
Game 2 - Drew 6-6. Went on to lose 10-6.
Game 1 - Lead 18-6 (+12). Went on to lose 25-18.

06
Game 3 - Drew 4-4. Went on to lose 16-14.
Game 2 - Trailed 14-0 (-14). Went on to lose 30-6.
Game 1 - Lead 14-0 (+14). Went on to win 17-16.

As we can see, NSW's second halves are woeful. Gould wrote today that they've been outscored 111 to 55 in the second halves of last four years.

They have not come from behind even once. The only time they've lead by less than 6 but gone on to win, was a dead rubber. And once when they lead by more than 6 at the break, they were run down.

Their record when not leading at half time is 0 wins from 6 games.

So again, I think if NSW are not leading at half time, their chances of winning shrink dramatically. It's critical for them to not allow another 09 - letting QLD get out to a big lead.