2015 Ladder Predictions

Still a month away, but with the NAB Challenge having started, why not.

1. Hawthorn
2. Port Adelaide
3. Sydney
4. Gold Coast
5. Fremantle
6. North Melbourne
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. West Coast
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Greater Western Sydney
14. Collingwood
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Carlton
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

I think Hawthorn have at least one more top-class season in them, which in the short term will keep them ahead of the dramatically improving Port. It will be close though.

Sydney will stay up there, despite last year's grand final their midfield/forward line combo is still utterly elite. Might start slowly though, and I don't think we'll quite keep up the pace with the Top 2.

Gold Coast are my bolters. Had Ablett not got injured they would've made the 8 last season, and they are one of the few clubs that have an easier draw than what is expected. Add some new recruits, a coach that knows how to win and an extra year's worth of experience and you'd expect a good season from them.

Fremantle will slip a little bit, but in 2015 they should still be sweet. After that though things could start to get rocky. Lyon leaves me skeptical in how he develops lists. In any case, I think they blew their opportunity to win a maiden flag last year.

North and Richmond are the two clubs I'm most interested in watching how they go this year. I can see both clubs either doing amazingly or underachieving. I think the Kangas have more going for them than the Tigers, but too many clubs have recruited like the Roos have and it failed to pay off. Tigers have a good core, but lack depth and have a couple of glaring holes which will probably leave them in the cycle of inconsistency.

There were some nasty warning signs down in Geelong last year (their performances after their first 5 games was often pretty mediocre for a club ranked so highly), but I think they're good enough to stay in the Top 8. Still have enough quality in their list even if some of it might be aging and their main hole last season has potentially been fixed.

Adelaide could be anything. In their favour is the addition of a new coach. Not in their favour is the fact that they still have a few holes on the list. The Dangerfield contract drama might be a distraction too.

Essendon....where do I begin? Even if you don't take the drugs thing into account, I don't think they're good enough to keep a Top 8 spot. Still have a pretty decent list, but the club has far too much drama going around to really perform at their best and the list has imperfections too.

West Coast will continue to tread water, beat the sides they're expected to beat and have some stylish wins, but their midfield is weak enough that it should be exposed by the better sides and that will be their downfall.

Brisbane's midfield might be great now, but they still need improvement in the key position stocks. Should do well at home, but they're probably a season off making the 8.

GWS will continue to develop with new and improving players joining the club. This season I'd probably expect something similar to the Gold Coast's 2013/14 - I don't quite think they'll make the 8, but they won't be easybeats, at least at home.

Collingwood are going down. I think they'll spring a few upsets because their best players are still elite, but their list isn't looking flash. Not sold on Buckley as a coach either.

Western Bulldogs will fall a little bit in the short-term, but I think the Griffin drama will arguably help long-term. Still it's hard to see them doing well for at least a season, probably two.

Carlton are starting to stink. I don't see much improvement in them, and it wasn't like they were going particularly well either. Could even spoon it if things go really ugly.

Finally, Melbourne should improve somewhat. I don't think they'll be great right now - still not enough quality experienced players, but they'll improve their competitiveness and start to shed the minmow tag they developed.

St Kilda are fucked for a season or two. They'll get themselves out of a rut eventually, but their short-term prospects look bleak at best.