Hate to have to say it but I actually want the Warriors to win. I would love to see both Brisbane and North QLD in the finals but the Broncos are simply not capable of really doing anything playing the way they are, and from the position they'll be in. The Cowboys on the other hand, from 4th are definitely capable of doing something. Despite losing to Penrith, I give them a better chance of beating the Roosters at home.
I'm tempted to bet on Penrith by 2. The reason being that it's a result that both teams would accept with 5 to go. The warriors would just be looking to not concede in that position.
Yeah 4th is a huge step up from 5th, particularly for the Cowboys. The second chance if they lose is obviously very helpful, but a win would mean they're one home win off from the grand final, which would be massive.