2012 State Of Origin Game 1, Melbourne

Discussion in 'Matches' started by Maroon_Faithful, May 14, 2012.

  1. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    NSW have actually won twice at Lang Park in the last 6 years - Game 3 2007 and 2009.

    And yeah Sydney used to be a hard, almost impossible place for us to win but QLD have won 5 of the last 7 played there.

    You say winning one of the two games guaranteeing a Decider in Sydney - Mate, NSW have to win Game 1. They're not going to come from one game down if Game 2 is in Brisbane - Only 2 NSW sides in history have come from one game down to win. The last time it happened for NSW it took a Johns comeback with 7/10ths of the Test team (2005).
     
  2. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    Simple fact is regardless of who gets Game 3, NSW must win on Wednesday night. No team that has lost the Melbourne game has ever gone on to win the series. And the team that wins Game 1 has a 75% chance of winning the series - This NSW side cannot beat those odds.

    The QLD side can, and in fact has (losing Game 1 though not losing in Melbourne), in 2008 and 2006 but it's not preferable.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2012
  3. GYR DW Lewis

    Yes both of those wins being dead rubbers so their significance is diminished dramatically.

    Yes it does all come down to game one but IMO it would be more likely that we beat QLD at Suncorp in game 2 where we are desperate and QLD are in cruise control than in a decider at suncorp in game 3 where both teams are just as desperate.
     
  4. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    It doesn't really matter who gets the Decider if QLD win Game 1. NSW will not come from one game down. If they managed it, considering the strength of the QLD side, it'd be one of if not the greatest upsets in Origin history. If QLD win Game 1, NSW should be at $50 to win the series. It just will not happen.

    However, if NSW win Game 1 then you'd probably prefer to have Game 3 in Sydney and Game 2 in Brisbane. Vice versa allows NSW to perhaps wrap up the series before QLD get a home game but the Blues haven't won back-to-back matches since 2005. They'd be better coming off a loss in Brisbane, regrouping and winning a Decider in Sydney - 2008 was the last time this happened and it's the closest they've come to winning a series during the QLD dynasty.

    What's more, NSW have not won the second game of a series in Brisbane since the year 2000. So yeah, forget about Game 2 and just win a Decider in Sydney.

    Trying to win, as you said, Game 2 in Brisbane and then Game 3 in Sydney, is just not going to happen I'm afraid.
     
  5. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

  6. crowley DA Crowley

    I miss Luke O'Donnell.
     
  7. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Queensland supporter?
     
  8. crowley DA Crowley

    Always prone to a brain explosion but I loved the passion he showed.
     
  9. Harry Sack SB Slippy

  10. Raide KN Rask

  11. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    :laugh:. That's gun.
     
  12. Raide KN Rask

    Pumped for tomorrow.
     
  13. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    Apparently Harrison will play hooker if Smith needs a rest. I can't see that happening.
     
  14. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Has he trained at all in the last 3 days or just been crook as a dog?
     
  15. Magic AJ Parker

    The flu is a pretty underrated factor going into this game. There's nothing worse than playing with it... I imagine they'll be drugged up on all kinds of shit but from personal experience it's just fucking balls and there's no way Smith will be 100%... more like 70-80 imo.
     
  16. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    He trained on Sunday and last night. In fact, I don't recall him missing a training session.
     
  17. Magic AJ Parker

    Yeh trained last night and was sent to be at 8pm.
     
  18. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    He said it's not a virus and he wasn't feverish with no energy. Merely a blocked nose. And he was speaking last night in the past tense about it.

    70%? I don't think so.
     
  19. Alec AD Funkotron

    70% Smith > 140% Farah anyway.
     
  20. Magic AJ Parker

    Indeed.

    Still this one on one match up shit is Year 8 shit... doesn't really prove much.
     

Share This Page